The Great Man theory of history

Aden Hashi Ayro, one of Al Qaeda’s top agents in East Africa and the leader of the Islamist comeback and the leader of the Islamist comeback in , was killed Thursday morning by an American airstrike, according to Somali officials.

Mr. Ayro was one of the most feared and notorious figures in Somalia, a short, wispy man believed to be in his 30s who had gone from lowly car washer to top terrorist suspect blamed for a string of atrocities, including ripping up an Italian graveyard, killing a female BBC journalist and planning suicide attacks all across Somalia.

Somalia officials said his death could be a key turning point in defeating the Islamists, who have seized several towns in recent weeks, and in bringing peace to the country.

“This will definitely weaken the Shebab,” said Mohamed Aden, consul for Somalia’s embassy in Nairobi, the capital of neighboring Kenya, who confirmed the developments. “This will help with reconciliation. You can’t imagine how many Somalis are saying, ‘Yes, this is the one.’ The reaction is so good.

That's from the New York Times’ Jeffrey Gettleman this morning. I can’t say I know much about Ayro, but one thing sticks out in the above passage—the claim that his death will weaken the Islamist militia in Somalia. Seems that we’ve heard this line before…like back in 2006 when Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed by American Special Forces in Iraq.

Like Ayro, lots of people got excited that Zarqawi’s death would bring al Qaeda in Iraq to its knees, which is a fundamental misreading of the nature of cell-based groups like al Qaeda, where leadership is dispersed, and whose members rely more on a shared set of beliefs to keep them going, rather than the leadership of one man. Back when Zarqawi was killed, the Washington Post crowed that “The death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi could mark a turning point for al-Qaeda and the global jihadist movement...” The Hertiage Foundation chimed in that Zarwaqi’s death was “a major turning point in the war on terrorism. The course of history is shaped by major events, and this is one of them. The elimination of one of the world’s most brutal, barbaric terrorists will be a huge blow to al-Qaeda and its murderous cohorts…” 

And we all know how those predictions turned out. 

So while Somali government officials can claim victory, I’m more apt to believe the words of a guy who speaks toward the end of Gettleman’s piece: Mohammed Uluso, a leader of the

Ayr clan, of which Ayo was a member. Uluso doesn’t think that Ayo’s death will have much of an effect on the Somali Islamic movement, saying, according to Gettleman, "that he thinks the Shebab isn’t done yet, since many young Somalis see the Shebab as a “heroic cause” because it stands up to the Americans.

“The Shebab won’t just disappear,” Mr. Uluso said.